Sinwar’s death is an Osama bin Laden moment. There is now real hope that the guns will fall silent

This could be the end. The pressure for peace may now prove irresistible, even for Netanyahu

The demise of Yahya Sinwar has opened a clear gateway to an end to the war in the Middle East. It could lead to the release of the remaining hostages of October 7 and potentially to a ceasefire and partial withdrawal of Israeli troops in Gaza. There is the prospect of a ceasefire in Lebanon as well, if significant pressure is brought to bear by the Biden Administration. Even the Iranians and their regional allies will be heaving a sigh of relief.
The atrocity of October 7 was Hamas’ “Hiroshima” moment. With an increasingly right wing and unpopular government in Israel faltering in the face of domestic protest, and with the Trump administration’s inspired Abraham Accords gathering pace, the stage had looked set for a historic realignment of the Middle East with Israel secure within its own borders, guaranteed by the Sunni Arab world led by the Gulf states. This in turn would have led Israel to reduce and even reverse its illegal settlements on Palestinian land. There would have been a path to statehood for Palestine and real peace in the region.  
Hamas and its Iranian theocratic regime backers realised that if all this happened, the world would have no further need of them. The intent of October 7 was to plunge the region into war – to so provoke the Israelis that there would be a full regional conflict. Israeli violence would define attitudes for generations, ensuring the future of Hamas and the influence of the Tehran regime.  
In the last terrible year, we have seen the almost complete destruction of Gaza, the neutralisation of Hezbollah in Lebanon. The regime in Tehran is kneeling at the executioner’s block facing the destruction of their oil processing and exploration facilities and a significant threat to their nuclear ambitions. Such a blow might have proven fatal to this ramshackle regime, so hated by its own people.
But in the same year we have seen a popular protest movement of the Left across the world and most importantly the West, turning on Israel and its supporters to an extent that it is spawning divisive political groups, popularising extremist beliefs and further isolating not just Israel, but the Jewish diaspora across the world, in a manner that would have seemed inconceivable only five years ago.  
Any ceasefire or settlement has always depended on the re-release of the hostages remaining alive. There was also one further red line; the elimination of Yahya Sinwar, the mastermind of October 7. Sinwar, a seasoned terrorist, knew this and would never agree to the release of the hostages in the knowledge that this would mean his certain demise. There was no pressure from his friends and allies, both within Hamas, the Iranian regime or other affiliated groups in the region including Hezbollah, the Quds force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) or others, that would make him move.
Now Hamas is decapitated – literally – and the Hezbollah leadership massively degraded both by the targeted elimination of their charismatic leader Hassan Nasrallah and their main sponsor within the Quds Force, Major General  Esmail Qaani. This is not even to mention the devastation of their middle management by the effects of “Operation Grim Beeper” – the exploding pagers attack followed by the exploding walkie talkies and solar panels. The forces once relied on by Iran to keep Israel in a defensive posture are, if not destroyed, hugely degraded.  
My belief is that demands for a ceasefire from the Biden administration and from the Arab World, led by Egypt, will be irresistible. I have no doubt that the Israelis will be holding out for one last big punch at Iran in retaliation for its missile attacks on Israel but the US and regional allies will be saying “enough!” The deal may be sweetened by some of Iran’s regional allies, with Qatar possibly having to expel Khaled Mashel, the last man standing in the Hamas leadership.  
All that said, there is great uncertainty as to the numbers of hostages still alive – and the numbers that Hamas may feel they can release alive, given the almost certain sexual and physical abuse that the young men and girls are likely to have suffered at the hands of their captors. But I think the US will demand an end to the impasse and I believe that the remainder of the Hamas leadership – under pressure from their benighted people – will give in.
But will Benjamín Netanyahu and his cabinet?  Will they ask for one last punch at Iran? With a US Presidential election looming, I doubt it.
This could be the end. The pressure for peace may now prove irresistible, even for Netanyahu.
Colonel Tim Collins is a former British Army officer who served with the SAS and as commander of the Royal Irish during the invasion of Iraq in 2003, when his before-battle speech to his soldiers made headlines around the world